The corporate earnings season for the first quarter is underway and about one-fifth of S&P 500 companies have reported results. Investors are focused on these earnings announcements even more than usual due to ongoing economic uncertainty amid high inflation, slower growth, and the banking crisis. In this context, corporate profitability can shed light on how companies, sectors, […]
The U.S. dollar has been in the headlines due to an anticipated pause in Fed policy and concerns over the currency’s place in the global financial system. However, to borrow Mark Twain’s famous line, reports of the dollar’s death are greatly exaggerated. While the role of the dollar has declined by some measures over the past […]
There is an old saying that happiness equals reality minus expectations. This is particularly relevant when it comes to financial planning and investing during times of great uncertainty. For investors, having unrealistic short-term expectations of investment returns and financial outcomes, as many often do in the late stages of bull markets and during asset bubbles, can lead […]
In times of market uncertainty, investors often turn to sayings such as “those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it” and “history never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” When it comes to the day-to-day headlines, both quotes are relevant given the long history of banking crises and market swings. This is […]
In this market environment, investors have had no choice but to balance a number of difficult issues related to the tightening of financial conditions. These have ranged from rising rates to a slowing economy, and a housing market downturn to the current banking crisis. While each of these issues has its own unique circumstances, it’s […]
Last week, we analyzed the potential implications of nearing capital-weighted dollar volume resistance. Such events often act as pivot points, with the market either breaking out from the resistance ceiling or breaking down due to overwhelming supply. This past week provided a clear message as the market dropped when testing capital-weighted dollar volume resistance. Although […]
The U.S. population, like those of many developed countries, is aging. According to the latest Census figures, a major shift occurred over the past two decades in which the share of the population under 50 declined, especially among those who are considered to be of prime working age. Even the youngest baby boomers are nearing retirement age while […]
Click here to download this commentary in PDF format. Stock market volatility has once again picked up as recent economic data have led markets to reverse course after a strong start to the year. While investors have grown accustomed to daily swings, it’s still important to remember that stock market fluctuations are normal, expected and unavoidable. After all, […]
Control was regained by the bears last week. Perhaps the most significant development was the S&P 500 breaking below major support. Formerly, we heavily discussed the S&P 500’s 4000 level as the major resistance level formed by the axis of the bearish wedge. Once broken to the upside, the 4000 level then reverted to support. […]
Click here to download this commentary in PDF format. For investors, it may feel like déjà vu all over again as inflation and the Fed dominate market headlines on a day-to-day basis. After all, the numerous market swings last year were driven by ever-changing expectations around the Fed – both when investors believed the Fed was doing too […]