Volume Analysis | Flash Update – 9.8.26

Generals and Troops Poke Their Heads Out of their Bunkers

The week started out on poor footing, but the bulls found support just where they needed it. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rallied from the 7600 defensive line. Then on Thursday, the market popped with an 88% Capital Weighted Volume /Dollar Volume upside/inflow day. Despite the S&P 500 finishing the week largely flat, up only 0.08%, the internal field report was more constructive than the headline price action suggested.

For the week, 58% of S&P 500 Capital Weighted Dollar Volume registered as inflows, while 62% of Capital Weighted Volume traded to the upside. Most importantly, this modest price move beneath the surface catapulted both accumulated Capital Weighted Volume and accumulated Capital Weighted Dollar Volume through resistance to new all-time highs. That is a meaningful development. In prior reports, we have repeatedly said the bulls needed more fuel. This week, the supply lines finally delivered.

This connects directly to the Second Half Volume Analysis Outlook. The market has been in what we described as a transition tape, where leadership is rotating, correlations are changing, dispersion is rising, and selectivity is becoming more important. The core question has not been whether price could advance. The question has been whether volume and capital flows would confirm the advance. Price tells us what investors have done, but volume tells us whether they have done it with conviction.

In the military framework, this week’s message was clearer. The generals and troops poked their heads out of the bunkers. They did not overrun the battlefield, but they did return fire.The generals, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, rallied 0.35% and helped the major regiments close near the prior week’s highs. However, the generals remain in the lower end of the August 21st wide range. Their next resistance remains near 735, while critical support remains near 685. The Second Half Outlook identified 685 as the key level the generals needed to reclaim and defend, with deeper support near 600 and 575. For now, the generals remain wounded but operational.

The troops, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, also tested the perimeter. The troops broke 295 support early in the week, but gathered strength to finish just above that level, barely breaking a two-week losing streak with a 0.09% gain. Holding 295 continues to matter. If the troops can continue rallying from this defensive line, it would strengthen the broadening theme by encouraging the rest of the army to rejoin the advance.

The broader belly of the market was weaker. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF declined -0.29%, while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF fell -0.77%. Those losses are not ideal, but both regiments remain above short-term support. The key point is that all major units are either at support or bouncing from support. With the generals and troops having tested and rallied from their defensive lines, next week becomes all the more important. The question is whether leadership can continue holding the line and encourage the broader belly to join the campaign.

This is where the And Then There Were None framework remains useful. The market has not lost the whole army. Instead, the command structure is rotating. The generals still matter, but they are no longer the only story. The troops have been improving, the belly of the market has been participating, and the brass commanders have shown resilience in weakness. The broader theme from the Outlook remains intact, more stocks are participating, and the campaign has evolved from And Then There Were None toward And Then There Were Some.

The NYSE Advance Decline Line closed lower on the week, but it finished at its intraweek high while holding its upward trend. That is constructive. Breadth did not fire a fresh breakout flare, but it did not abandon the battlefield either. In a market entering the seasonally vulnerable September stretch, holding breadth support is an important sign of discipline in the ranks.

The Iran war continues to frame the cross-asset battlefield. Recent reporting described renewed U.S. strikes against Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz, followed by Iranian retaliation, while separate reports noted Iran and Oman had discussed a temporary shipping corridor through the strait. Other recent reports have highlighted continued shipping disruption, tanker strikes, and oil volatility tied to the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the energy front unsettled.

Oil, represented by NYMEX Brent, finished slightly above its $95 midpoint. Interestingly, both oil and technology finished higher this week, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE+2.27%) and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK (+0.92%) bucking their recently noted inverse relationship. In the Outlook, we described this as a yin and yang market, where energy and technology have often moved in opposite directions as war headlines, peace talk optimism, oil prices, and growth leadership pushed against one another. This week, both regiments advanced, suggesting that the cross-asset command structure may be shifting, at least temporarily.

Gold and silver also held formation. After both metals bounced off resistance last week, they rallied from their intraweek lows and finished towards the top end of their weekly ranges. The commodity scouts remain active. Silver remains especially important because it is not only a precious metal, but also a critical industrial metal tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure across the supply chain.

The S&P 500 support remains near 7600 and resistance near 7800. That is the immediate battlefield range. The bulls need to defend 7600 and push through 7800 with continued confirmation from Capital Weighted Volume, Capital Weighted Dollar Volume, and breadth. The bears need to force a break of support on heavier downside volume. So far, the bears have not delivered that decisive strike.

Overall, this was a constructive week beneath a flat price surface. The S&P 500 barely moved, but capital flows improved. Upside volume led. Accumulated Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume broke through resistance to new all-time highs. The generals and troops tested support and rallied. Breadth held trend. Gold, silver, energy, and technology all showed survival instincts,

Still, the broader belly of the market did not fully join the advance. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF need to regain momentum for the broadening campaign to look fully coordinated. The current setup is encouraging, but now needs follow-through.

Risk Command

This week improved the tactical picture. The bulls defended 7600 support, and volume’s supply lines finally broke through resistance to new highs. That is a positive development and deserves respect.

However, risk management remains the proper command posture. The S&P 500 faces resistance near 7800. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 must continue to hold above 685 and push toward 735. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF needs to hold 295. The broader ranks, represented by the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF and the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, need to rally here off support to rejoin the advance if the broadening theme is going to strengthen further.

A disciplined approach means respecting price, but allowing volume to confirm. It means maintaining exposure where the evidence supports it, diversifying across leadership groups, watching support levels, and remaining prepared to adjust if downside volume or capital outflows return.

For now, the generals and troops have poked their heads out of the bunkers. The supply lines have improved. The broader army has not yet fully charged, but it has not retreated either. In markets as in war, the mission is not to win every skirmish. It is to defend critical ground, follow the flow of capital, and manage risk before it manages you.

Grace and peace,

BUFF DORMEIER, CMT

Updated: 9/8/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.