Volume Analysis | Flash Update – 7.13.26
Early July Fireworks, Broadening Still Under Review
This past week, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% on light volume, continuing the early July advance toward the 7600-resistance zone. Seasonally, early July often has a way of lighting a firecracker under the market, drawing investors back into the field before the historically more difficult stretch of August, September, and early October. This week’s rally carried price higher, but the battlefield still looks more like a market staging its next move than one delivering final orders.
Volume was light, yet constructive enough to keep the bulls in command for now. Upside Capital Weighted Volume was average for the week, while downside volume finished below average. Upside volume led downside with nearly 65% of the total S&P 500 trades, suggesting the bears did not contest the advance with much force. Still, the broader message was not overwhelming conviction. It was more a case of buyers advancing while sellers stayed quiet.
The generals, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, led the charge, finishing up 1.93% on the week. Their next resistance zone sits between 740 and 745. This keeps the generals in command of the advance, but also places them near a key battlefield ridge where follow-through could matter.
The troops, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, slipped modestly, down -0.53%. The remaining units finished relatively flat, showing that while the generals led, the broader ranks did not fully join the charge. This is important within our And Then There Were None framework. The list of advancing units has not disappeared, but neither has it expanded decisively this week.
The broadening theme remains alive, but not fully confirmed. The NYSE Advance Decline Line weakened early in the week, then recovered some of its losses before Friday’s close. That recovery is constructive, but breadth did not deliver a decisive breakout. The troops paused, the broader ranks held position, and the generals carried the banner. For the next phase of the secular advance to gain strength, broader participation still needs to reassert command.
The accumulated trends of S&P 500 Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume remain a key tactical concern. While price continues to press toward resistance, volume trends are not leading with the same force. From a Volume Analysis perspective, price advancing ahead of volume keeps the campaign constructive but incomplete. The supply lines are present, but they are not yet surging.
The Iran war remains an active cross asset influence. Recent reports indicate renewed U.S. and Iran tensions after the ceasefire came under pressure, with the Strait of Hormuz still central to oil market risk and diplomatic negotiations continuing in the background. Oil prices have remained volatile as markets weigh renewed military skirmishes against the possibility that talks may contain escalation.
On the commodity front, oil bounced from support at an oversold level on decent volume but failed to break above the June 19th high range. The next resistance stands near $82.50. This suggests the energy front has regrouped, but has not yet mounted a decisive counteroffensive. Gold and silver weakened modestly but remained largely within the prior week’s ranges. The commodity scouts are moving, but no clear shofar has sounded from that front.
Overall, the market appears to be staging its next move. The generals have advanced toward resistance, the troops paused, breadth recovered but did not break out, and volume casts a skeptical shadow. The early July firecracker rally has kept the bulls on the field, but the army has not yet marched in full formation.
Risk Command
The tactical posture remains cautiously constructive. The S&P 500 is pressing toward 7600 resistance, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 is approaching 740 to 745 resistance, and downside volume remains subdued. However, light volume and uneven participation argue complacency.
A disciplined risk management approach remains the proper command. Investors should respect the rally but avoid chasing without confirmation from breadth and capital-weighted volume. Position sizing, diversification, and support discipline remain essential. If breadth expands and volume begins to lead price, the bulls may regain stronger command. If the generals stall near resistance while the troops and broader ranks fail to follow, the rally may be vulnerable.
For now, the bulls hold the high ground, but the next orders have not been fully issued. In markets as in war, victory is not simply reaching resistance. It is holding ground with supply lines intact.
Grace and peace,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 7/13/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
