Volume Analysis | Flash Update – 2.9.26
From Strange Brew to Mixed Bag
Last week, we characterized market conditions as a strange brew. This week that brew turned into a mixed bag, as the broadening theme reasserted itself through forceful divergence across leadership tiers. What appeared on the surface as disorder increasingly resembles waning fuel rotation.
The generals took notable damage this week. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 declined -1.98%, weighed down by sharp losses across its Nephilim champions, including Amazon down over -12%, Meta Platforms down -7%, Microsoft down -6%, and both Tesla and Alphabet lower by roughly -4%. In contrast, the troops, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, regained traction and advanced 2.07% on the week.
A similar divergence unfolded within the broader S&P 500 structure. The State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust slipped -0.20%, while its equal weight counterpart, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, surged 2.08%. Most striking, however, was the renewed leadership from the brass commanders. The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF vaulted 5.63% on the week, decisively assuming command. Collectively, this action reinforces the themes of broadening out and down, while simultaneously reviving echoes of our “And Then There Were None” theme dynamics observed during mid-2024 and 2025.
From a volume perspective, the previous week’s unusually light participation gave way to growing engagement as this past week progressed. Thursday marked a decisive bearish strike, registering a 90% downside Capital Weighted Volume day. Friday delivered a seemingly sharp counterattack, with the S&P 500 rallying nearly 2%, yet only achieving 70% upside volume. On balance for the week, more than 65% of both Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume flowed to the downside. Importantly, both accumulated volume trends have curled lower, though they remain above their rising troughs, suggesting pressure without breakdown confirmation.
The capital-weighed index’s price weakness remains largely attributable to the stalling generals. Since the mid-December spinning top formation, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 has remained locked in consolidation. While spinning tops are often pauses rather than peaks, the lack of upside follow through keeps risk elevated. Near term support resides around 595, with secondary support near 580. As long as these levels hold, it may be premature to declare a completed top, yet leadership fragility persists.
Meanwhile, the troops continue to recover from the January 16th doji pause, showing renewed momentum yet presently remain capped beneath 270 resistance. Their recent action suggests consolidation rather than escape, as they work through their own late January spinning top structure.
Encouragingly, several formerly lagging formations have begun to assert themselves. The brass commanders have broken free from a prolonged deep base, charging to new all-time highs. While the move has been swift and capital flows suggest a short-term pause may be warranted, the intermediate term structure reflects constructive accumulation. Likewise, the equal weight S&P 500 has also achieved new all-time highs, overtaking its capital weighted counterpart and reinforcing the broadening narrative.
Market breadth further supports this interpretation. The NYSE Advance Decline Line closed the week at new all-time highs, mirroring the strength seen in equal weights. This behavior suggests capital is not exiting the battlefield, but rather rotating from narrow leadership toward broader participation. S&P 500 support rests near 6630, with resistance near 7000.
Risk Command
This remains a market of rotation rather than retreat. Broadening participation is constructive, yet leadership deterioration and volume non confirmation argue for restraint. Investors should remain aligned with strength but avoid chasing extended moves, particularly where volume fails to validate price. Respect key support levels, size positions appropriately, and maintain flexibility as capital continues to shift across the ranks. In campaigns marked by divergence, survival often depends not on the swift, but on the disciplined.
Grace and peace,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 2/9/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
