Volume Analysis | Flash Update – 10.13.25
The markets came under heavy fire Friday as renewed fears of a U.S.–China trade conflict rattled investors and triggered a widespread selloff. After a 400-point September advance, the S&P 500 had marched deep into extended territory, leaving supply lines thinner and sentiment shaken. The result was a swift and decisive pullback.
On October 10, 2025, the S&P 500 fell -2.71%, with an overwhelming 98% of Capital Weighted Volume to the downside. While overall volume surged well above average, selling pressure did not match the intensity of the upside breakout sessions from mid-September’s offensive. The index closed near the 6550 support zone, a key defensive position for the current campaign.
Both the accumulated trends of Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume turned lower on the week, signaling a pause in momentum, though both remain well above their prior lows and above their long-term uptrend lines. S&P 500 Capital Weighted Dollar Volume registered modestly elevated readings, with 60% of flows classified as outflows. Capital Weighted Volume, meanwhile, came in only near its weekly average, with 62% of the activity weighted to the downside, evidence of investor profit taking rather than institutional panic.
Among the fighting units, the generals (QQQ – Invesco QQQ Trust) held their ground above short-term support at 575, displaying discipline amid the retreat. The troops (IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF) also defended their lines, closing directly on their September 26 doji lows to remain within the prior trading low bar – an encouraging sign of tactical stability. In contrast, the brass commanders (SCHD – Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF) bore the brunt of the decline, falling the most despite entering the battle the least extended. This is telling as these forces are typically the ones most resistant to bear market insurgences. True to recent form, it was the generals who held up best, down -2.26% for the week.
Beneath the surface, however, market participation weakened. The NYSE Advance–Decline Line breached not only its September lows but also August’s, illustrating that the broader formation has lost some depth. Even so, the measured move managed to close just above its 50-week moving average, holding the line of long-term trend support. Looking ahead, the next tactical levels for the S&P 500 include near-term support at 6480, with major reinforcements positioned at 6200.
Summary and Risk Command
This week’s pullback reflects not a rout but a strategic recalibration after an extended advance. The generals and troops remain disciplined at support, while volume trends, though retreating, still command higher ground relative to price. The campaign’s broader structure remains intact, yet broader market participation has thinned.
In such environments, the prudent commander tightens ranks. Investors should review exposure levels, respect support thresholds, and prepare contingency plans in case selling pressure intensifies. Maintain alignment with volume-confirmed leadership but keep reserves ready. Markets, like armies, move in cycles of advance and regroup. The wise soldier knows when to press and when to preserve. And then there were none left unprepared.
Grace and peace my friends,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 10/13/2025. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
