A New Hope or a Gathering Storm? This past week, the market delivered another milestone with the S&P 500 closing at new weekly highs. Beneath the surface, however, the story is one of mixed conviction. Capital is flowing, but not yet at the same pace as price. Volume and Flows Capital-weighted dollar volume and to […]
A New Hope or a Gathering Storm? This past week the market delivered fresh records as the S&P 500 closed at new all-time weekly highs. Yet, while price pressed to new ground, volume revealed a more nuanced story. Both capital-weighted dollar volume and capital-weighted share volume turned slightly higher, each forming a subtle “fishhook” reversal. […]
A New Hope or a Gathering Storm? The shortened Labor Day week still produced outsized signals in the supply lines. Despite losing a trading day, downside volume averaged 121.5 million shares, nearly double the 65.5 million in upside. Across the week, 43% of trading was to the upside while 57% flowed to the downside—an imbalance […]
A New Hope or a Gathering Storm? Part II Last week we began our new series describing the shifting internals of the two U.S. stock markets. Market One is the capital-weighted S&P 500, largely carried by the ten largest mega-caps AKA the Nephilim. Market Two is the other 490 stocks of the S&P 500 along […]
NVDA Earnings Through Newton’s Lens: Action, Reaction, and Market Motion As detailed in my Volume Analysis Flash Update: “A New Hope or Gathering Storm?”, market breadth has become the critical battleground. While smaller-cap ETFs our “troops” charged ahead with renewed vigor, the elite “generals” faltered, and capital-weighted volume began to stall, hinting at internal tensions […]
A New Hope or Gathering Storm? August awakened the troops (iShares Russell 2000 ETF), with the market closing on another bullish note as the broader forces once again led the charge. Their advance rekindled a sense of new hope, as long-neglected ranks stepped forward to breathe life into what has been a highly concentrated, capital-weighted […]
Troops Bolster Momentum but Stall at Resistance For the second consecutive week, the troops (IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF) strengthened its advance, gaining 3.08% and charging forward from their 210 support line. Their momentum, however, was checked at the 232 resistance post, where the rally faltered. A decisive break above this level would be […]
Generals Breach the Heights The generals (Invesco QQQ Trust) led from the front this past week, charging ahead with a 3.97% gain and breaking through to close at new all-time highs. While Capital Weighted Volume came in slightly below its weekly average, Capital Flows registered slightly above average, confirming that the advance was backed by […]
Landslide The market’s bullish charge faltered as August opened with a sharp reversal, catching the ranks off guard and shifting the tide of sentiment. What had been an orderly advance quickly devolved into a disjointed retreat. This past week, volume surged above average, but it was not the sound of reinforcements. It was the roar […]
Closing Ranks Last week we noted that although the generals (Invesco QQQ Trust) were pressing ahead with a valiant bullish charge, the supporting ranks were trailing behind. This past week, the formation tightened. The ranks narrowed the gap, signaling a more unified advance. The equal-weighted battalions took the lead, with RSP (Invesco S&P 500 Equal […]