Volume Analysis | Flash Update – 7.28.25
Closing Ranks
Last week we noted that although the generals (Invesco QQQ Trust) were pressing ahead with a valiant bullish charge, the supporting ranks were trailing behind. This past week, the formation tightened. The ranks narrowed the gap, signaling a more unified advance.
The equal-weighted battalions took the lead, with RSP (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF) advancing 1.94%. Its sibling, SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust), followed close behind with a 1.58% gain. The generals continued their steady march, finishing the week up 1.02%. Even the long-lagging brass commanders (SCHD – Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF) added to the charge, gaining 1.07%. Only the troops (IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF) slightly lagged, notching a modest 0.89% gain.
Volume, which had previously surged far ahead of price since the April 9th reversal, moderated to more neutral levels. Capital Weighted Volume registered slightly below average, while Capital Weighted Dollar Volume (Capital Flows) came in just above average. Still, the direction of flow favored the bulls—55% of Capital Weighted Volume was to the upside, with 57% of capital moving into inflow territory.
Most encouraging was the resurgence in market breadth. After a two-week hiatus, the NYSE Advance–Decline Line rejoined the offensive, breaking into new all-time highs. This renewed participation among the broader ranks is an essential signal, suggesting the campaign may now have broader structural support behind the frontline gains.
Summary:
The market’s formation has strengthened. What began as a narrow push led by the generals showed reinforcement by the broader ranks this past week. Volume leadership remains constructive, and breadth has returned to the field. Yet, while the campaign appears to be advancing in alignment, the seasonal terrain of the August malaise remains unpredictable. No rally moves in a straight line. As we continue to follow the volume and flow, investors would be wise to stay strategically positioned, but not complacent. Maintain exposure with discipline, rebalance where necessary, and keep your defenses intact. In every campaign, the tide can turn, and then there were none left without a plan.
Grace and peace my friends,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 7/28/2025. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
