Clouds Gathering, Rays Breaking Through This week our market “army” repositioned under cover. The S&P 500® Index remained entirely inside last Friday’s (10/10/2025) long bar, a tactical inside-week formation at the rear of the frontline. The battlefield quieted, yet the under-surface currents show both risk and latent potential. Volume & Capital Flows: Calm on the Surface, Engines […]
The markets came under heavy fire Friday as renewed fears of a U.S.–China trade conflict rattled investors and triggered a widespread selloff. After a 400-point September advance, the S&P 500 had marched deep into extended territory, leaving supply lines thinner and sentiment shaken. The result was a swift and decisive pullback. On October 10, 2025, […]
A New Hope or a Gathering Storm? The tide of capital continued to rise this week, pushing the market toward new milestones. Both Capital-Weighted Volume and Capital Flows pressed higher, with Capital-Weighted Dollar Volume (Capital Flows) breaking out to fresh all-time highs, and accumulated volume matching prior highs at resistance. While price confirmed the advance, […]
A New Hope or a Gathering Storm? This week’s battlefield was quiet on the surface but filled with subtle signals beneath the smoke. The S&P 500 carved out a higher high and a lower low, yet closed almost exactly where it began leaving behind a doji candle on the weekly bar. At first glance, this […]
A New Hope or a Gathering Storm? This past week, the market delivered another milestone with the S&P 500 closing at new weekly highs. Beneath the surface, however, the story is one of mixed conviction. Capital is flowing, but not yet at the same pace as price. Volume and Flows Capital-weighted dollar volume and to […]
A New Hope or a Gathering Storm? This past week the market delivered fresh records as the S&P 500 closed at new all-time weekly highs. Yet, while price pressed to new ground, volume revealed a more nuanced story. Both capital-weighted dollar volume and capital-weighted share volume turned slightly higher, each forming a subtle “fishhook” reversal. […]
A New Hope or a Gathering Storm? The shortened Labor Day week still produced outsized signals in the supply lines. Despite losing a trading day, downside volume averaged 121.5 million shares, nearly double the 65.5 million in upside. Across the week, 43% of trading was to the upside while 57% flowed to the downside—an imbalance […]
A New Hope or a Gathering Storm? Part II Last week we began our new series describing the shifting internals of the two U.S. stock markets. Market One is the capital-weighted S&P 500, largely carried by the ten largest mega-caps AKA the Nephilim. Market Two is the other 490 stocks of the S&P 500 along […]
NVDA Earnings Through Newton’s Lens: Action, Reaction, and Market Motion As detailed in my Volume Analysis Flash Update: “A New Hope or Gathering Storm?”, market breadth has become the critical battleground. While smaller-cap ETFs our “troops” charged ahead with renewed vigor, the elite “generals” faltered, and capital-weighted volume began to stall, hinting at internal tensions […]
A New Hope or Gathering Storm? August awakened the troops (iShares Russell 2000 ETF), with the market closing on another bullish note as the broader forces once again led the charge. Their advance rekindled a sense of new hope, as long-neglected ranks stepped forward to breathe life into what has been a highly concentrated, capital-weighted […]