Volume Analysis | Flash Update – 6.16.25
Of Breathers and Battle Lines
With the smoke of geopolitical tension lingering on the horizon, the markets took a measured pause from their recent bullish campaign. The S&P 500, after staging an advance to new daily highs since the April 9th reversal, momentarily breached the 6050 resistance line intraday on Wednesday, June 11th—only to retreat and fall back below 6000 by week’s end. While the index closed lower, the true strength of the market appears to be revealed not in price, but in volume. Both Capital Weighted Volume and capital flows quietly posted new weekly all-time highs, showing no signs of retreat from their forward advance.
Despite last week’s lull, volume flows beneath the surface painted a more nuanced picture. Overall volume was slightly below average, yet the complexion was constructive. Downside volume and capital outflows were muted, while upside volume held steady and capital inflows came in above average. Beneath the battlefield, the NYSE advance-decline line pushed higher, a signal that the underlying infantry of stocks is still mobilizing forward.
Among the formations, the brass commander—SCHD (Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF)—staged a quiet counteroffensive, advancing 1.43% for the week and showing renewed leadership. Yet the remainder of the market’s ranks fell back. The troops (IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF) bore the brunt of the retreat, declining -1.32% and slipping beneath the recently captured 212 resistance level.
Looking ahead, key battlegrounds are emerging. For the S&P 500, the psychological resistance levels remain at 6000 and 6050, while the next line of minor support sits at 5785. For the troops, momentum must be recaptured by reclaiming the 212 hill, with a neutral zone marked down at 190. Any failure to hold that line could shift their posture back to defensive. Meanwhile, the generals (QQQ – Invesco QQQ Trust) remain steadfast and disciplined, still within reach of their all-time high at 540. Their posture suggests no surrender, only a patient, calculated advance.
Summary:
Though the market took a tactical breather, strength beneath the surface seemingly endures. Volume and capital flows continue to chart higher ground, acting as silent forward scouts for price action. The brass are stirring, the troops have momentarily fallen back, and the generals remain focused on their objective. Should this regroup hold, the offensive may soon resume. But as always, in this campaign, every battalion has its part to play—and then there were none left untested.
Grace and peace my friends,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 6/16/2025. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
