Volume Analysis | Flash Update – 2.18.25
The generals, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), reasserted their command this past week, leading the market charge with a 2.91% advance on light incursion (volume). The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), the loyal lieutenant, followed suit with a 1.49% gain. However, the broader battalions struggled to keep pace with their capital-weighted comrades as mildly rising longer-term rates sirens warned.
The brass commanders’ dividend stocks, Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) managed modest victories, up 0.83% and 0.48%, respectively. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) retreated -0.13%, dragging down the troops, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), who finished the week in a stalemate (down -0.01%).
Despite the small and mid-caps’ lackluster performance, the NYSE Advance-Decline Line finished slightly higher, though engulfed within the previous week’s range like a prisoner on Soldier Island. Capital Weighted Dollar Volume was below average, with capital inflows outpacing outflows by nearly 50%. Capital Weighted Volume was also light with Upside volume dominating, accounting for about 75% of total Capital Weighted Volume. Meanwhile, downside volume retreated. Mirroring their capital weighted price index, both the accumulated trends of S&P 500 Capital Weighted Volume and Dollar Volume have consolidated near the top of their range on the verge of challenging all-time highs.
The S&P 500 remains above its long-term and intermediate price trends and appears to have rested and regrouped, strengthening its challenge of 6128 resistance. Similarly, the troops have been tapping away at 230 resistance. Although neither group is presently fully fueled or coiled, they appear better prepared than at previous resistance skirmishes. Bonds, the moral leader of the troops, could once again signal their next move. Slightly overbought TLT (89.15) lurks near the top end of its near-term range (90.5) hesitant to tip its hand on its next move.
In conclusion, the generals have reclaimed command and appear to be marshaling forces for another offensive to expand their territory. As the market drama unfolds, one must wonder: who will be the strong survivor in the upcoming chapter of this financial thriller?
Grace and peace my friends,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 2/18/2025. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
