Volume Analysis | Flash Update –1.6.25
The first week of 2025 is in the books with all our units moving on light volume, as our forces cautiously emerged from their New Year’s celebrations. The troops (iShares Russell 2000 ETF, IWM) led the charge, bouncing off of support to advance 0.92%, showing the same resilience they displayed during holiday leave. They were followed by brass commanders RSP (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF) and SCHD (Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF), retreating -0.21% and -0.11%, respectively. The generals (Invesco QQQ Trust, QQQ), lagged this week, closing down -0.76%, perhaps still shaking off the effects of the New Year’s festivities. Their influence pulled down the capital-weighted SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which finished the week’s maneuvers down -0.51%.
The S&P 500 remains entrenched below our short-term trend line and appears pinned down between December 20th’s wide weekly range of 6085 and 5832. A decisive breakthrough above or below this range could break the near-term consolidation and signal new marching orders.
Despite the S&P 500’s advance, Capital Weighted Dollar Volume finished lower on the week on soft trading, reminiscent of troops conserving energy after holiday leave. However, upside Capital Weighted Volume overtook downside volume on a 5:4 basis, suggesting a slight advantage in our market offensive. Meanwhile, the NYSE Advance-Decline line rose and, like the S&P 500, is caught in the crossfire between its December 20th range.
More consolidation can be found in the troops’ ranks as they currently are bound in a range with 212 as support and 228 as resistance, much like soldiers holding their positions in anticipation of further orders. Overall, if the first week is indeed a harbinger, then the battlefield could be choppy in 2025, requiring our forces to remain vigilant and adaptable as they navigate the financial frontlines in the coming year.
Grace and peace my friends,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 1/6/2025. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
