Most Retirement Plans Have a Finish Line. What Happens If You Cross It?
Executive Summary
Most people underestimate how long they’ll live in retirement, and that miscalculation creates real financial risk. Keith Demetriades explains why Americans consistently guess low on life expectancy, how living past 90 changes the math on a retirement plan built for 30 years, and what it means to structure a plan that accounts for all three phases of retirement—the go years, the flow years, and the legacy years.
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Most Retirement Plans Have a Finish Line. What Happens If You Cross It?
Here’s a question worth considering: Do you know the average U.S. life expectancy for someone who reaches 65 today?
Current data shows men who reach 65 can expect to live to about 83. Women to about 86. Call it 85 on average.
In a recent survey, only 32% of respondents estimated that number correctly. And of the people who got it wrong, most guessed low. They didn’t overestimate how long they’d live—they underestimated it.
That pattern matters, because retirement plans built on assumptions that don’t hold up create problems that compound over time.
1. Why do people underestimate their own life expectancy?
When you ask people how they picture retirement, you hear about time with grandkids, travel, hobbies they never had time for, and mornings without an alarm clock. That’s the vision, and it’s a good one.
But when you ask those same people how long they expect that retirement to last, the number tends to come in low. There’s a reason for that disconnect.
Underneath the vision of a good life sits an awareness that a very long life could mean something else—years where resources diminish, health declines, and independence fades. Seven in ten Americans say they don’t want to live to 100. So consciously or unconsciously, they plan for a shorter life and a shorter retirement.
You can’t plan around a preference and call it a strategy.
2. How has longevity changed in recent decades?
In 1950, about 2,300 Americans lived to 100 annually. It was rare enough that the milestone made the papers.
Today, that number exceeds 100,000. According to U.S. Census Bureau projections, by 2054, it’ll be over 400,000.
Living to 100 used to be exceptional. It’s becoming significantly less so.
A plan built for 30 years looks very different from one that needs to last 35 or 40. And most retirement plans aren’t stress tested for that possibility.
3. What are the three phases of retirement, and why do they matter?
A long retirement doesn’t look the same throughout. It moves through three distinct phases, and each carries different financial demands.
The go years represent the phase most people work toward. High energy, high activity, high spending. Life on your own terms. When people picture retirement, this is usually what they see.
The flow years arrive next. The pace slows naturally. Life finds a comfortable rhythm. Spending moderates. In most cases, finances through these first two phases function as planned, with adjustments along the way.
The legacy years are where many retirement plans fall short. Longevity isn’t guaranteed, and most people plan around probabilities rather than possibilities. But this is one area where falling short carries consequences that can’t be easily corrected.
4. How does living past 90 change your retirement plan?
Consider someone at 60 with $4 million saved and a 30-year retirement plan. Drawing 4% annually means $180,000 a year—about $15,000 monthly. That’s a solid plan, assuming things proceed as expected.
But what happens if they live past 90?
Three things need examination.
Portfolio longevity changes first. A portfolio structured for 30 years differs significantly from one built for 35 or 40. Investment mix, growth runway, withdrawal strategy—all of that needs calibration to a longer timeline. Most people have this conversation once, around retirement age, and never revisit it against an extended horizon.
Healthcare costs rise second. As you move into the legacy years, medical expenses typically increase. In-home support, assisted living, or memory care can carry substantial costs. That’s a planning reality worth accounting for.
Legacy intentions shift third. If you live longer than planned, that will probably change what you leave behind. Estate plans, gifting strategies, and what passes to family looks different when the timeline extends by ten or fifteen years.
5. What does a plan built for all three phases actually look like?
When a plan accounts for all three phases—go years, flow years, and legacy years—each has its own answer.
The go years are fully funded. You say yes to the travel, the experiences, the things you’ve been working toward—without watching every dollar or second-guessing whether the plan can handle it.
The flow years remain stable. The rhythm of life shifts naturally, and the plan shifts with it. No scrambling, no recalibrating from scratch.
The legacy years are accounted for. Healthcare costs have a place in the plan. Your estate reflects the actual timeline, not just the one you hoped for. You leave behind what you intended—not just what remains after an unplanned decade.
The plan doesn’t hope you stop at 90. It’s built to carry you past it.
Building for longevity means recognizing the gap between how long people believe they’ll live and how long they actually might. The best plans account for all three phases—not just the ones that feel comfortable to plan for.
Real Wealth Starts With Real Life.
Contact Information
Keith Demetriades, CFP®, CKA®, believes real wealth starts with real life. He created the 4D Client Experience to help guide decision-making and ensure your money works as a tool to support your life. If you’re ready for a financial plan that reflects how you live and what you’re building toward, contact Keith at (806) 223-1105 or visit Kingsview Partners.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this blog is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor to discuss your specific situation and needs. Past performance does not indicate future results, and all investments carry risks, including potential loss of principal. Any financial product or strategy references are purely illustrative and should not be construed as endorsements or recommendations.
Investment advisory services are offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Insurance products and services are offered and sold through Kingsview Insurance Services, LLC (“KIS”), by individually licensed and appointed insurance agents. KWM and KIS are subsidiaries of Kingsview Partners.
