Kingsivew CIO Scott Martin Interview on Fox Business, Cavuto Live 12.17.22

Program: Cavuto Live

Date 12/17/22

Station:  Fox News Channel

Time:  10:00AM

NEIL CAVUTO: All right. This isn’t just a Saturday. This is Super Saturday. Your last chance to take advantage of some big sales because you won’t have another Saturday. This is it. So get out there. Well, a lot of people are not getting out there. And my next two guests are not surprised by some of the numbers they’re seeing. Scott Martin at Kingsview Asset Management and Hitha Herzog, the retail watcher or H Squared research. He said the consumer definitely slowing down a little bit, but how do you see it going in the next week?

HITHA HERZOG: The consumer is definitely slowing down, Neal, but we have to think about the benchmarks that we are using. You’re absolutely right. It’s Super Saturday and I think in the past we’ve always said Super Saturday is the day before or the weekend before Christmas and everyone needs to get their gifts out. But according to an Oracle study, people have been buying to the tune of 74% of the consumers have been buying prior to this time period. So they got all their purchasing done. So while people are buying, you know, overall average around 900 to 1000 dollarsa for the holiday season, that’s how much they’re going to spend. They’ve already done that. So our benchmarks are a little bit skewed.

CAVUTO: All right. But if the consumer is slowing down, Scott, that has enormous implications for the economy, right?

SCOTT MARTIN: Big time. About two thirds of the economy, Neal, is determinant on the consumer. So obviously, we want to see good numbers here. But he. That’s right. I mean, myself included, I’ve been shopping all fall and seeing deals. By the way, earlier on it felt like this year than you saw in previous years and now hoping that I can just afford a haircut, frankly, as we approach the holidays here, because some of the prices, though, Neil, the costs are still rocket high. And so therefore, consumers are cutting back in other areas as they try to afford the last minute Christmas gifts.

CAVUTO: Yeah, I’m just looking at a little gray. These markets must be just weighing on you there.

MARTIN: Been a rough year man.

CAVUTO: Could just be the TV lights, You know Hitha, the Federal Reserve, of course, keeps hiking. Interest rates just did so this past week. Giving every indication is not done. That’s got to be a bummer for shoppers or consumers in general down the road.

HERZOG: Definitely. And we’re seeing those prices certainly inflate, but we’re seeing that CPI index come down as well. And that’s definitely lower. It came in at about 7.1%. It’s lower year over year than it was last year, 7.7 and month over month. It’s slowly decreasing. But what we also have to think about, too, Neal, is that the savings rate is slowing, too. Consumers aren’t saving as much as they used to get compared to what they were saving during the pandemic. So before we have this sort of reserve and for those rainy days, just in case. And I think the consumer now is very worried that that reserve is now gone. One source of optimism, though, the small businesses are very, very optimistic. I think they think that especially at the first part of the year, according to the Data Catalyst Institute, the people are going to continue to spend. And I think because of that, it’s really the reach of the digital tools that they’re they’re using. So it’s not just they’re basing their sales in the United States, but they’re looking at it more from a global perspective.

CAVUTO: All right. And we ended showing you a number of retail inflation, which has come down from its highs, but it’s still very high over 7%. Guys, have a wonderful Christmas. Thank you again.

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