Volume Analysis | Flash Update – 4.6.26
Put Up or Shut Up
The month ended with a show of force, but the campaign remains unresolved.
On the month and quarter-end, Tuesday, March 31st, the bulls launched a counteroffensive, delivering a 95% Capital Weighted Upside Volume day on above average volume. The new quarter opened with a 90% upside day on below-average volume. On the surface, the advance appeared decisive. Underneath, participation was less convincing.
Despite the late surge, the broader backdrop remains shaped by the ongoing conflict with Iran. Markets continue to operate in a fog of war where sharp rallies can emerge quickly but lack sustained reinforcement. In this environment, moments of hope can appear quickly, but without confirmation, they risk fading just as fast.
For the shortened holiday week, upside capital participation finished slightly below average, with total volume also below average. The rally showed signs of life, but conviction remained restrained. Like a seasonal pause for reflection, markets appear to be searching for direction rather than committing to one. Regarding seasonals, April has historically been one of the stronger months of the calendar.
Importantly, Accumulated Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume both closed the week directly on trend support. This is a critical line in the sand. These trends represent the backbone of institutional participation. A confirmed breach would signal a transition into a Volume Analysis correction and a more defensive posture. Holding this level, however, could allow for renewal and stabilization.
Breadth offered a temporary reprieve. The NYSE Advance Decline Line moved back above trend, suggesting participation attempted to broaden once again. Whether this proves to be a lasting resurgence or merely a short-term rebound remains to be seen.
Risk Command
The battlefield has reached the moment of decision. If Capital Weighted Volume and Dollar Volume hold trend support, the market may stabilize and rebuild. If these levels fail, distribution is likely to accelerate, favoring a more defensive stance.
In uncertain environments such as this, discipline remains paramount. Focus on position sizing, respect for support, and confirmation through volume. Unlike confirmation, hope is not a strategy. The battlefield has reached a decisive crossroads, where convictions built on hope or fear will likely determine the next move.
The market remains in its put up or shut up phase.
Grace and peace,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 4/6/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
