Kingsview CIO Scott Martin on Fox News | The Will Cain Show – 7.16.25
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WILL CAIN: Welcome back to Fire or Not to Fire. It’s Shakespearean — President Trump addressing reports today that he may be planning to ask Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to step down, and that he had a draft letter ready for his removal. Those reports sent the Dow and Nasdaq on a rollercoaster ride. Markets eventually stabilized as President Trump poured cold water on those plans.
PRESIDENT TRUMP: Have you drafted a letter? I have drafted a letter. So you didn’t show a letter to Republican lawmakers last night? No. I talked about the concept of firing, and I said, “What do you think?” Almost every one of them said I should. But I’m more conservative than they are.
WILL CAIN: The President also spoke about the future of the Fed.
PRESIDENT TRUMP: He’s always been too late — hence his nickname: “Too Late.” He should have cut interest rates a long time ago. He’s doing a lousy job. But no, I’m not talking about that. Fortunately, we get to make a change in the next, what, eight months or so? And we’ll pick somebody. It’s not a tough job, to be honest. Assuming you’re smart, it’s not a tough job. If you’re a dummy, then I guess it’s a tough job. But it might be one of the easiest jobs I’ve ever seen.
WILL CAIN: So why would the President want to fire Powell? What’s holding him back from doing so? And what would it mean for everyday Americans? Joining me now to answer those questions is Scott Martin from Kingsview Asset Management. Scott, it’s great to have you on the program today. Let’s talk about why the President would want to fire Jerome Powell. I looked this up today — it looks like central bank chairs in much of Europe have already cut interest rates and don’t appear to be as concerned about inflation as Jerome Powell. So, President Trump wants to see rates lowered — like in Europe.
SCOTT MARTIN: He does, and things in Europe, as we know, Will, are strikingly different than they are in the U.S. — and even from other countries abroad. They tend to have different central bank approaches — some of which aren’t always well-advised. Here’s the weird thing though: if President Trump is focused on interest rate cuts, he should know they don’t automatically affect open market rates. That’s one of the key problems. The Fed funds rate is an overnight bank lending rate. It doesn’t directly determine, say, the 10-year Treasury rate, or your mortgage or credit card rates. Here’s the other funny thing, Will — if the President looks at some recent history, he’ll remember that last year, the Fed cut rates by about 100 basis points ahead of the election. And what happened? Rates went up in the open market — because it was the wrong move. So honestly, I think Powell’s got this one right. I also think the President’s rhetoric is a little too harsh. He should probably stay on the sidelines when it comes to Powell — because that’s when the markets and rates seem to perform best.
WILL CAIN: Well, the President does disagree with you, Scott — sadly. I’d love to host that debate between you and President Trump on whether Powell is getting it right. My own suspicion is that rate cuts are coming — that Powell has them quietly scheduled for the fall.
That’s just my take. The President’s criticism is more about timing: he thinks it’s “too late.” Not that catastrophe is around the corner — but that you could juice the economy now without threatening inflation in the short term. So here’s my next question: what’s holding the President back from firing Powell? That would be unprecedented, right, Scott? Theoretically, the President doesn’t have the authority to fire the Fed Chair — it’s supposed to be politically independent.
SCOTT MARTIN: Correct — and the rhetoric today raises questions about how independent it really is. Maybe Powell is proving that independence by not yielding to the President’s pressure.I also think the President isn’t firing Powell because he’s still working through who he would nominate instead. Maybe there are others out there telling him, “Hey, I’ll take the job — but I’m not cutting rates either.” And, Will, maybe a guy like Dave Portnoy would come in and slash rates — he’s known for doing unpredictable things when it comes to markets. We’ve seen that before. But in all seriousness, Powell isn’t a dummy — and he’s not that late. I think the Fed is being pragmatic right now. If you look at the markets, they’ve actually been okay. The real pressure this year — especially in the S&P — has come from tariff talk, not the Fed.
WILL CAIN: Scott, I think most Americans would appreciate lower rates — whether it’s for their mortgage or other lending. You’ve made the point today that Fed cuts don’t directly drive open market rates — but there is a strong correlation. And sure, I don’t know what to make of the shot at Dave Portnoy potentially running the Fed.
SCOTT MARTIN: Was that a shot? I meant it more as a deflection — maybe even a compliment in a weird way. But look — Portnoy knows, like many of us do, that this isn’t a normal economy. Remember, last year the Fed cut the funds rate — and open market rates went up.
That’s not helpful — and it’s why timing and communication matter.
WILL CAIN: Alright. And maybe you’re right that tariff policies — more than Fed moves — are the real source of market uncertainty. Still, economic data keeps surprising to the upside. We’re not in a dystopia. We’re not in collapse. And frankly, those reports help President Trump — and help American families.
So yes — there is a reasonable expectation that rates will eventually reflect economic reality. Maybe Powell’s timing is right after all. But we’re all going to get there — one way or another — even if Dave Portnoy ends up running the Fed. And I don’t think he will.
SCOTT MARTIN: At this point — who knows, Will.
WILL CAIN: Alright. Thanks, Scott. See you soon.
