Kingsview CIO Scott Martin On Fox Business The Big Money Show 7.11.2024
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BRIAN BRENBERG: I’m going to bring you something else. Joining us now is Scott Martin from Kingsview Wealth Management, CIO and Fox News contributor.
SCOTT MARTIN: And dog lover.
BRIAN BRENBERG: Yeah, dog lover. Oh, another dog lover. Okay, everybody but me. I guess I love them, I just don’t have one. The CPI number is 3%. What do you make of it? It’s affecting markets in a sort of funny way, I think. But what does it mean for the broader economy?
SCOTT MARTIN: Yes, it is kind of funny, but also kind of sad. I mean, this is the number we wanted, Brian and ladies. This is the number we expected after having those few months, as you put into context very well, Brian, that weren’t so great at the beginning of the year and certainly weren’t so great a couple of years back. So the market’s taking it in stride, I guess, and feeling the effects of Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony this week and some of the commentaries from some of the Fed governors over the last couple of weeks and months. These commentaries show that the Fed is finally maybe turning tail on being a little bit more monetarily generous, I guess, with respect to certainly no more rate hikes. I think those are definitely off the table. But now, these hopes of rate cuts, I just do not see it yet. I think the 2% inflation rate that everybody’s going for is not going to happen. As I’ve said all along, it’s a dream. But being at 3% and having the Fed out of the way is really what market participants should want. Take the Fed off the front pages and just let the market bake on this thing. And you’re seeing it so far in the 10-year note dropping today as well.
JACKIE DEANGELIS: Alright, let’s talk about Powell’s job. He’s done his best to bring down inflation, but that compounded price hike that we’re talking about still lingers around. This is all ultimately coming down to the price of oil. So we wanted to take a little trip back in history, and Scott, stay with me here. Take a look at the price of oil under President Bush. The average between 2001-2008 adjusted for inflation was $74.47. Remember, the world was dealing with wars in Afghanistan and Iraq at the time too. Fast forward to President Obama’s term, the price averaged $100.69. Then during President Trump’s four years, you see a big drop to $62.67. So you’re probably seeing where I’m going with this. We’re looking at President Biden’s term and an average price of $82.88. Now, Scott, I understand that we can’t necessarily control government spending because they have gone buck wild. If a new candidate is elected, that person will control it, but the price of oil is huge when it comes to inflationary pressure as well. And President Trump has said he will bring oil prices down once again by drilling more in this country and putting more product out there. Will that solve the problem of these compounded price increases?
SCOTT MARTIN: It should. And Jack, your point is well taken. Oil prices as a factor in inflation are huge. It trickles up to businesses and trickles down to consumers. And if you just look back at those stats regarding past presidents, isn’t it funny what happens to oil prices when we actually drill for oil here in the country? We actually have the oil that we have here in the country and we become, oh my goodness, a net exporter of oil. My goodness. And we actually have a reasonable policy here. So the Green Energy Deal and all that stuff, the Green New Deal, everything that Biden has done has destroyed oil prices for the American consumer with respect to pushing it up. And so yes, I think consumers and really the economy alike should be excited for somebody like Trump to come back in there and actually have a legitimate oil export policy. Put a little bit legitimate oil drilling policy here in the country that we rely on so much when it comes to those prices as they input into inflation.
TAYLOR RIGGS: So Scott, I want to broaden out here to earnings, right? Because, of course, a potential rate cut definitely impacts the market. We’re also going to get some data from these companies soon that’s going to impact the market. We got two consumer brands this morning, Delta and Pepsi, both showing essentially weakening demand based on current prices for their products. So what do you think that tells us about where the consumer is right now and what we might see from consumer brands this earnings season?
SCOTT MARTIN: It’s funny, Kelly. I think those names are names of yesteryear to really follow when it comes to the tried and true beliefs and trends of the consumers. Pepsi kind of blaming some of the diet pill craze and some of the diet medication craze on people not buying Frito Lays or Pepsi. I myself am not doing that. I’m buying more Frito Lays, more Cheetos, more Pepsi Mountain Dew than I ever have in my life. And flying more too, guys. I mean the flying is really treacherous these days, but Delta is a good airline. They’re one of my favorite airlines but have been destroyed, as you mentioned, Kelly today. So those are areas where I would still pick up these stocks if you’re out there looking for bargains because I believe they’re getting downtrodden based on some of those trends that I think are likely to pan out, maybe more to the downside with respect to helping those companies in the future as they bounce back in price.
BRIAN BRENBERG: Scott, real quick, give us your picks.
SCOTT MARTIN: Yeah, we’ve got three today. We’ve got Thor Industries, which is leisure and hospitalities RVs and all that fun stuff, Brian, that you like to do. And maybe we’ll take an RV trip here on a Thor Industries type of product soon. Visa stock, another one that was battered and beaten up this week. I still believe that the consumer is going to come in very well and Brunswick Corporation. So, Brian, we take a Brunswick Corporation after we get out of the RV, we get in a boat, my friend, and take some of the lakes around Minnesota into account. And so those are three areas that, while the consumer gets depressed and while the consumer gets thrown out with the bathwater, I think those are companies that have come down significantly enough for one to buy or two to buy, or three to buy even, if you’re interested.
BRIAN BRENBERG: Man, you are speaking my language, camping, boating, and putting it on your credit card and paying for it later. Scott Martin, good stuff.
SCOTT MARTIN: And maybe a Twins game, buddy. Talk to you soon.
BRIAN BRENBERG: Thank you so much. Good to see you.
