Finance, Insights

Black Friday Moving to Cyber Monday?

PaulNolte-2There won’t be a formal newsletter this week, however a few thoughts about the coming week and some worries (there are always a few!).

The Black Friday sales were reported to be roughly 11% below expectations, however it looks as though consumers are rapidly shifting toward buying online than waiting in a store line. Reports later this week should shed additional light on consumer buying habits for this relatively short Thanksgiving to Christmas shopping period.

The usual “big” economic reports from manufacturing to employment will be released this week and will likely impact daily price moves more than specific company fundamentals.

Other thoughts:

-Falling oil prices will help consumers save a few dollars at the pump, but those savings may not extend to the winter heating season.

-Valuations and investor sentiment remain near the top of their historical ranges, which reduces future “expected” rates of return on stocks.

-But, from a historical  point of view December is the best month for stocks. Since 1970, the SP500 has declined in only seven Decembers and just twice since 1987 (2005 & 2007).

 

The opinions expressed are those of the author and are based upon information that is believed to be accurate and reliable, but are opinions and do not constitute a guarantee of present or future financial market conditions.